Signs of a weaker 2H 2026 for Asian petchems freight
Our recent acquisition of PJ Marine, and the front row seats we have into petrochemical trends means that we're not just reading about China's petrochemical slowdown in reports, we're seeing it play out in real time and gleaning meaning actionable insights in a timely fashion for our clients.
The numbers are stark.
China's crude oil imports dropped to 7.12 million bpd in June, the lowest since October 2016, down over 40% from a year ago.
Refinery runs fell to 12.47 million bpd, a level we haven't seen since the pandemic.
PTA plants, one of the key petrochemical building blocks, were running at only around 68% capacity back in April as feedstock costs ate into margins.
Then July's manufacturing PMI came in at 49.2, down from 50.3 and into contraction, ending five months of growth.
We put together the chart below using our own freight and fleet data, and it tells a story that matters if you're chartering vessels in this space. Freight rates across the north/south bound Asian chemical routes we track shot up through the Hormuz disruption earlier this year, but every single lane has been pulling back since June. At the same time, 2026 is bringing the biggest wave of new chemical tanker deliveries we've seen in years, and scrapping isn't keeping pace at all.
There's also a supply story on the plant side. A number of Chinese benzene, MEG, methanol and styrene monomer units just came back online after turnaround in June and July, so more product is hitting the market right as demand softens. Only a handful of plants are going in the other direction for maintenance over August.
Softer demand, plants coming back online, freight already sliding, and more ships arriving than are being scrapped. None of this points to a tight market in the second half of the year. Having people on the ground in China through PJ Marine means we're not guessing at this, we're watching it happen, and it's already changing how we're thinking about chartering and positioning for clients through year end.
