VLCC Report - July 2026
- 10 hours ago
- 2 min read
July was another month in which the freight market took its cues from headlines rather than fundamentals.
Brent crude traded across an almost $30/bbl range making July the 3rd most volatile month of 2026 so far, behind March and April. TD3C softened 9.3% month on month but that figure masked rates actually climbing steadily through July after the US-Iran MOU fell apart.
TD34, meanwhile, came under pressure as STS activity slowed and tonnage remained ample in the Gulf of Oman after tankers were hit during shuttle operations off Fujairah. Further west, Houthi pressure on Bab al-Mandeb pushed VLCC Yanbu to Ulsan freight (via COGH) towards W300. As Saudi crude flows were redirected, more tonnage repositioned towards Sidi Kerir for loadings through the SUMED pipeline, tightening prompt tonnage in the Atlantic.
The asset market is giving us another important signal. One and three year TC assessments have continued to firm alongside five and ten year old VLCC resale values, while newbuilding prices have remained broadly flat. The market appears to be placing a premium on prompt, commercially acceptable tonnage to provide security in an uncertain trading environment, rather than capacity arriving several years down the line.
This leaves the market with an uncomfortable supply question. Headline orderbook numbers make 2027–2028 look heavily supplied. However, more than 110 VLCCs in the existing fleet are already over 20 years old, where vetting, survey and charterer-acceptance requirements become increasingly important. Genuine fleet growth may therefore be much lower than the nominal numbers suggest. For owners, the challenge is balancing firm near-term earnings against a less certain outlook as newbuildings are delivered into the market.
If the current talks hold, we do not expect the market to snap straight back to pre-conflict levels. The VLCC market is searching for a new equilibrium — one shaped not only by barrels and ton-miles, but also by safe passage, route optionality and the availability of first-tier tonnage.
Follow Vantage Shipbrokers for continued analysis of VLCC freight, fleet and trade-route developments.
For the full July VLCC report, contact our tanker desk.
